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No Dog Bites for E-Mails

Consider this data for the number of postal letter carriers bitten by a dog:

  • 7000 in 1983
  • 2787 in 1994
  • 5605 in 2011
  • 5879 in 2012
Task #1: Create a "best-fit" model for this data, then predict the number of dog bites expected in 2014.

Task #2: Try to explain this extreme variability in the data. Could it be due to reporting practices...changes in mail delivery procedures...etc.?

Source: U.S. Postal Service